What is LongTermValue Research?
I started LTV Research as a way to share medium term investment horizon ideas that have a high-likelihood of generating returns >50% in 2-3 years.
Who am I?
I am an ex long-short hedge fund analyst. I was a generalist at a value-oriented fund but spent most of my free-time (and pitching of longs that never got in the book!) on the GARP/Compounder/Quality side. I am fundamentally oriented and target investment theses over a mid-term horizon —generally >1 year and <10. I will likely focus mostly on TMT, Healthcare, Consumer, and Industrials.
What do I get for a paid sub?
I plan to write at least 1 deeply researched investment idea frequently. I expect to spend most of my time on longs but will also write up short ideas. I’ll include a price target and investment horizon as well as standard business and industry research. In addition, I plan to write medium length (ie more than just napkin math or “uh Costco is a good company”) on ideas I have or like and have researched but the price just isn’t there or business quality & r/r aren’t sufficient.
What is my philosophy?
I am looking for high-quality opportunities that can provide attractive after-tax compounded returns over a 2-3 year horizon. This might come in the form of an over-punished consumer name, a tech name with under-appreciated durable growth, or an industrial value play that is cheap enough I sleep well at night. Stylistically, ideas will likely be mostly U.S. & tilt GARP or Value.
My hope is to have a hit rate of >60% on great ideas, with the math something like:
50% upside in 2 years—60% mix
Up 10% / flat—20% mix
Down 20% / whiff—20% mix
That gets you ~12% return / year. That’s an aspiration, not a promise! Do your own diligence and invest at your own risk!
I hope you consider subscribing as I plan to paywall almost all of my research.